What I Got Wrong

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What I got wrong week 15…

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by Douglas Menefee

It takes a man to admit when he is wrong. I once was up late at night watching MTV 2 or 3, or whatever it was called at the time, and caught a music video from a band called No Doubt and the song was called “I’m Just a Girl”. I thought to myself why is this on at 2 am on MTV’s third rate station and why am I watching MTV this late anyways. I thought that because I felt the music was catchy and the lead singers voice was unique. “Why are they on so late?” they should be on during the day on prime time and the normal MTV station. I was right about that band and they did make it. Also around that same era someone showed me a CD cover to a band called Green Day and it was titled “Dookie”. I am a mostly a hip/hoppapatumus and R&B guy so my expertise in rock/punk/alternative music is quite weak but I do know a good sound when I hear it. Although, I didn’t listen to any of it and when I saw this cover and without any investigation I thought “Who names their album title “Dookie”?” these guys won’t make it (this album was shown to me prior to “Basketcase” becoming popular). Even though “Dookie” was prevalent name for a 90’s alternative band because it was weirdly unique and thus extremely marketable to the teenagers at that time by its oddness. I still thought less of it and who am I to judge I was listening to a hometown favorite Bone Thugs-N-Harmony “Creepin on ah Come Up”. I am sure people would think those names are crazy too. Well I was dead wrong. In retrospect if I am not familiar with something I should probably do more investigating and learn about it before making an opinion. Regardless of that anything and everything can “make it” whether its good or not or if you were expecting it to make it but for the most part if the content is good no matter the name then its good. Finally, in the case of No Doubt I have a natural affinity towards underdogs. I want the little guy to win. I want them to do something unexpected and if they do it I can sound a horn saying, “I told you that would happen”. “You guys didn’t believe and I did”.

Here is what I got wrong this week. Some underdogs I thought No Doubt would make it and didn’t. Some I thought were Dookie and I was quite wrong. And there were some that were Creepin on ah Come Up and I vastly overlooked them.

QB

Jimmy Garoppolo
I was low on Jimmy G and kept pushing him lower and many people had him higher and I thought you know it is Atlanta so I will bump him up but the gut feeling was lower him even further. Honestly its a spot anything could have happened and I am sure people were feeling the same. Really he was only a touchdown away from middling expectation so can’t be too down on making him higher. Even though I still was lower then the general populous.

Dwayne Haskins
Well this one was wrong. If I had known Urban Meyer was in attendance up in a press box I would’ve raised his expectations. Is it a bad call not based on what he has done recently but I will take the L. I thought Dwayne was “Dookie” and I was wrong.

Matt Ryan
Matty ice and gang beat the expectation and I was not expecting this at all. Atlanta is like the old Oklahoma Thunder with Westbrook where they win when they shouldn’t and lose when they should win. I should have expected it going against their old coach. A whole team #revengenarrative.

Ryan Fitzpatrick
I need to put a notation or make adjustments to the rankings as the week goes on. I would have boosted him up based on Wilson and Parker passing the concussion protocol on Saturday.

RB

Dalvin Cook
He got hurt not my fault.

Kenyan Drake
I didn’t listen to reason.There was an article about David Johnson possibly not being with the team next year. I thought this would be a running game but didn’t buy David Johnson continually not being used. Kenyan was creepin and he came up.

Miles Sanders
I have a bias towards towards Philly Rb’s and I ignored the trend here. I missed the boat on Miles.

Joe Mixon
I didn’t know how excited he was to talk to Tom Brady. His solid production despite should have raised his rankings.

Tarik Cohen
I wanted to write that he could have an improved game against the Packers because I felt he would get behind but was cut short for time. My fault.

Patrick Laird
I was expecting more out of you buddy. You were the underdog that I was expecting something out of. I thought you would No Doubt be the one. I was wrong.

Derrick Henry
It was hard to rank him lower although I was worried and wrote it up. I was hoping he didn’t do well because my opponent in the semi finals had him but nonetheless.

WR

Julio Jones
Julio is good an he can make it even if its unexpected and he did here. Always start your studs. I was wrong here.

Terry McLaurin
Urban was in the building.

Greg Ward
I don’t think I listed him but as a flyer I should’ve kept him on there. I only listed top 50 so I bet if I went further he would be on there so I will add more. Last week was the first time I wrote rankings.

Below is last weeks data

Make sure to scroll down to the Key at the bottom so you can see how to read the data.

Click on the images to expand them on PC or Mobile (on mobile click and flip your screen). PDF files attached.

Key:

Pass Rank – Pass rank of the opponent. Low means weak. Mid means middling. High means good.

Run Rank – Same as pass but with run.

RF – Run Funnel Defense which is better for running backs.

PF – Pass Funnel Defense which is better for receivers and QB’s

IMP – Implied team total Vegas line good for seeing who has the potential to score more.

GT – Game Total

BUST – Likelihood of a bust performance. Low means low chance they will bust and not perform.

BUS – Likelihood of a blow up spot/smash spot/boom high means high chance of improved ceiling.

Pace – Pace of offense. Fast pace leads to more plays leads to possible increased production.

OPP Pace – Opponents offensive pace.