The Slate – Week 7

Cincinnati at Baltimore Prime Video

Joe Burrow

Burrow is the QB18 for the year but has been on an uptrend after his slow start due to his injury and has finished as the QB 6, 14, 5, and 6 in weeks 5-9. Burrow tends to be a QB1 but faces a tough battle this week. 

The Bengals will be on a short week on the road in a divisional matchup against the Ravens and will likely have a middling to low Vegas total, with the Ravens edging as the favorites. Burrow hasn't thrown for more than 217 yards and no more than 1 TD against the Ravens in three meetings last year. The Ravens have a stout defense, ranked 2nd in pass defense and 3rd in rush defense DVOA, while the Bengals are 10th in pass defense DVOA and 24th in rush defense DVOA (FTN Fantasy). This game sets up as a defensive battle if it follows script, which may limit fantasy production for both teams and cap ceilings for all fantasy-relevant players. Both teams rank in the bottom 3rd in the league in pace, Ravens (29th) and Bengals (24th) (FTN Fantasy). The Ravens are ranked 1st overall in graded coverage with a stellar corner and safety squad, including Geno Stone and Kyle Hamilton, who are above average in coverage grades (PFF). The talent and opportunity of Ja'Marr Chase can overmatch the Raven's corners, but I would temper expectations with this WR crew. On top of having stellar safeties, the Raven's linebacker coverage grades between Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen are also ranked high, which could limit production from Irv Smith (PFF). The Ravens are ranked 10th overall in graded rush defense, with only one vulnerable section on their D-Line - interior, Broderick Washington, who is below average in graded rush defense, which may make this tough sledding on the ground for Joe Mixon, who is running behind a 20th ranked run-blocking O-Line (PFF). The Ravens are number one in sacks (35) through week nine and will likely put pressure on Burrow at home, primarily through edges Odafe Oweh and Jadeveon Clowney. Burrow may have a tough time in the pocket. 

With a possible low game total and playing on the road in a divisional game against a solid defense, Burrow is more of a QB 2/3 this week with tempered expectations. 

Joe Mixon 

Mixon is the RB17 for the year and has finishes of 26, 19, 16, 28, 16, 26, 8 and 8. He has primarily been a trustworthy RB2 this year. 

With a tough on-the-road battle against a stout Ravens defense, I would temper expectations with Mixon on a short week and place him as a back-end RB2 to flex play. 

Ja'Marr Chase/Tee Higgins/Tyler Boyd/Irv Smith 

Chase is the WR6 this week, even with the slow start, and has finishes of 6, 27, 1, 26, 4, and 39 in his last six games through week nine, with (90) targets overall and (18) redzone targets. Higgins, the WR52, has only finished in the top 36 twice this year but still gets his share of (49) targets and (14) redzone targets. Boyd is the WR49, and Smith is the TE40 and hasn't finished in the top 12. 

With the Bengals playing a tough Ravens passing defense, I would rank Chase as a WR2, Higgins as a back-end flex play to fringe flex play, and Boyd and Smith off the radar in 12-man leagues. 

Lamar Jackson

Jackson is the QB3 for the year with finishes of 23, 10, 1, 3, 18, 8, 1, 27, and 16. He is 3rd in rush TDs, 1st in rushing yards, and 2nd in redzone carries (Player Profiler). He primarily operates as a QB1 and, if not, a bust from a fantasy perspective, typically when the strength of his defense limits his ceiling. 

This week, the Ravens will be at home against the Bengals on a short week in a game they will likely be favored in with a mid-to-low Vegas total. The Ravens have a stout defense, ranked 2nd in pass defense and 3rd in rush defense DVOA, while the Bengals are 10th in pass defense DVOA and 24th in rush defense DVOA (FTN Fantasy). This game sets up as a defensive battle if it follows script, which may limit fantasy production for both teams and cap ceilings for all fantasy-relevant players. Both teams rank in the bottom 3rd in the league in pace, Ravens (29th) and Bengals (24th) (FTN Fantasy). The Bengals are ranked 30th overall in graded coverage and have some vulnerable areas on the field from their corners, with a middling coverage grade, and safeties Dax Hill and Nick Scott, who have mid to low coverage grades (PFF). This bodes well for possible increased production. The Bengals slot corner, which may be lined up against Flowers about 30% of the time, does have an above-average coverage grade (PFF). The Bengals primarily play man coverage, and Zay tends to lean towards a better production outcome against zone; Algholor tends to fair better against man (PFF). The talent and opportunity of Mark Andrews should be able to outmatch the linebackers and safeties of the Bengals. The Bengals are susceptible to the run, ranking 28th overall in graded rush defense, which may help boost Lamar's run game and that of Gus Edwards and Justice Hill at home. Lamar may face some pressure from edge Trey Hendrickson but should mostly have room in the pocket behind an O-Line ranked 7th in pass blocking; the Ravens have given up a middling (21) sacks this year (Sportskeeda, PFF). 

Lamar is a back-end QB1 this week but with tempered expectations in a divisional game on a short week. In their meeting earlier this year, Lamar went 237/2/0 and 54 yards on the ground. 

Gus Edwards/Justice Hill

Edwards is the RB19 through week nine and has finishes of 6, 3, and 11 from weeks 7-9. Hill is the RB36 and has finished as a top-36 back six times. 

At home and playing a susceptible run defense, Edwards is a back-end RB2 to fore-front flex play, and Hill is a back-end flex. Edwards went 62/1 on the ground in their game earlier this year. 

Zay Flowers/Nelson Agholor/Odell Beckham/Mark Andrews 

Flowers is the WR34 for the year with (60) targets and (16) redzone targets, but he has busted four times out of nine. Agholor is the WR67, and Odell is the WR73. Andrews is the TE3 with (55) targets and (16) redzone targets and has only been outside the top 12 twice this year. 

At home against a vulnerable Bengals coverage unit, Flowers is a hesitant flex play, and Andrews is a bonafide TE1. Agholor may get some production, but he and Beckham are off the radar in 12-man leagues. 

Notables:

Both teams came off a loss in week ten, so this could be a close divisional game.
Higgins may be back for this contest, and improved Chase health.

Dallas at Carolina FOX

Dak Prescott

Prescott is the QB12 for the year and has finishes of 1, 4, and 2 from weeks 6-9. He had a slow start to the season playing more stout defenses, but his schedule eases up before the fantasy playoffs. 

This week, Prescott will be on the road against the Panthers in a game they will heavily be favored in. The Panthers are ranked 14th in pass defense DVOA and 32nd in rush defense DVOA, while the Cowboys have a stout defense ranked 5th in pass defense DVOA and 6th in rush defense DVOA (FTN Fantasy). If this game follows script, it may create more production for Pollard and the Cowboy's defense while limiting receiving production. The Panthers are ranked 24th overall in graded coverage, but they have a solid slot corner in Jammie Robinson and safety Xavier Woods, with above-average coverage grades (PFF). The talent of Ceedee Lamb should be able to overmatch them (PFF). Ferguson has a plus matchup against the linebackers and safeties, although linebacker Frankie Luvu has an above-average coverage grade (PFF). The Panthers are ranked 30th in overall graded rush defense, which bodes well for Pollard in a game in which they are heavily favored. The Panthers have a league-low (17) sacks and should give Prescott time to breathe in the pocket. 

Prescott is a QB2 this week with the potential for lowered production as a heavily favored team that may lean more toward the run. 

Tony Pollard

Pollard is the RB17 for the year with finishes of 5, 14, 13, 26, 26, 11, 44 and 26. Pollard has had some challenging matchups, but his schedule is softer before the fantasy playoffs. 

Pollard is an RB1 with upside this week against the Panthers, who are ranked 32nd-ranked rush defense DVOA (PFF). 

Ceedee Lamb/Brandin Cooks/Michael Gallup/Jake Ferguson

Lamb is the WR4 through nine weeks with finishes of 32, 8, 46, 24, 42, 11, 1 and 1. Cooks is the WR72, Gallups the WR77, and Ferguson, who has assumed the Schultz role, is the TE12 with five top-12 finishes. 

In a road game against the Panthers, in which the Cowboys are heavily favored, I would expect some receiving production but with a capped ceiling. Lamb is a WR2, Ferguson a streamable TE 2/3, and the rest of this WR crew are off the radar in 12-man leagues. 

Bryce Young

Young is the QB27 for the year and has only been suitable for 2 QB leagues. 

This week, the Panthers will be at home as significant underdogs against a stellar Cowboys defense. The Panthers are ranked 14th in pass defense DVOA and 32nd in rush defense DVOA, while the Cowboys have a stout defense ranked 5th in pass defense DVOA and 6th in rush defense DVOA (FTN Fantasy). If this game follows script, it may create more production for Pollard and the Cowboy's defense while limiting receiving production while the Panthers may need to throw. The Cowboys are ranked 11th in overall graded coverage and have a solid corner group and safety, with the only vulnerability at left safety, Donavan Wilson, who has a below-average coverage grade (PFF). The Cowboys are ranked 13th overall in graded rush defense and should be able to stall Hubbard's production. The Cowboys will also apply the pressure with edge Trevor Lawrence and interior Micah Hyde; the Panthers have given up a league-high (29) sacks through nine weeks (Sportskeeda). 

Young is off the radar in all leagues this week. 

Chubba Hubbard/Miles Sanders

Hubbard has overtaken the lead role and is the RB31 for the year. Sanders is the RB44. 

In a challenging game against a solid Cowboys run defense, Chubba is a flex play. Sanders has tapered off in recent weeks, and unless he shows a fantasy-relevant week ten, he is sittable in 12-man formats. 

Adam Thielen/DJ Chark/Jonathan Mingo/Hayden Hurst

Thielen is the WR9 with finishes of 87, 21, 3, 20, 4, 2, 24, and 43. Chark is the WR60, Mingo the WR87, and Hurst the TE30. There is only room for one leading role on this WR squad. 

Against a stout Cowboys defense, the Panther may need to pass but still temper expectations. Thielen should be a serviceable WR while the rest of this crew are off the radar in 12-man leagues. 

Notables:

Starting to worry slightly about Pollard's production and the inclusion of Rico when the Cowboys are up.
The Thielen needle has trended down as of resent.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland CBS 

Kenny Pickett 

Pickett is the QB28 for the year and is likely on your waiver wire unless you are in a 2 QB league. This week, Kenny gets a challenging matchup.

The Steelers will be on the road against a stout Cleveland defense who will likely be favorites at home in a low Vegas game total. The Browns are ranked 1st in pass defense DVOA and 1st in rush defense DVOA as of week nine, and the Steelers are 7th in pass defense DVOA and 16th in rush defense DVOA (FTN Fantasy). This divisional matchup sets up for a possible low-scoring affair with limited fantasy-relevant production on both sides of the coin. The Browns are ranked 13th overall in graded coverage, with above-average coverage-grade corners and safeties that could limit Pickens and Johnson (PFF). However, they have the talent to overmatch corners Denzel, Ward, and Martin Emerson. Harris and Warren are already limited ceiling flex plays and would get a downgrade with this formidable defense ranked 11th overall in rush defense (PFF). The Steelers have given up a middling (19) sacks but will face pressure from edge Myles Garrett (Sportskeeda). 

Pickett is off the radar in both 12-man leagues and 2 QB leagues against a tough Browns defense. 

Jaylen Warren/Najee Harris

Warren is the RB28 who primarily serves as an RB2/flex play on a weekly basis but has busted twice. Harris is the RB29 with similar attributes but has busted three times.

Playing against a tough Cleveland defense, I would treat these two as back-end flex plays.  

George Pickens/Diontae Johnson/Calvin Austin/Pat Freiermuth

Pickens is the WR31 for the year and has had finishes of 19, 53 and 90 in weeks 7-9 while Johnson has had finishes of 23, 20 and 5 in the same range when he returned from injury. Austin is the WR90, and Pat has missed games and has only hit the top 12 once. Connor Heyward is the TE46 for the year. 

With limited receiving capital to go around and against a stellar Browns defense, I would rank Pickens and Johnson and flex plays and the rest of this WR/TE crew off the radar in 12-man leagues. 

Deshaun Watson

Watson returned from injury in week nine against the Cardinals and finished as the QB8 for that week. It's still hard to get a good read on Watson as the Brown's defense has been the major factor in Brown's victories, but Watson has been at least managing. He has finished three out of four times as a top-12 QB this year. 

This week, the Browns get a tough divisional matchup at home against a rival, and they will likely be favorites in a game that will sport a low Vegas total. The Browns are ranked 1st in pass defense DVOA and 1st in rush defense DVOA as of week nine, and the Steelers are 7th in pass defense DVOA and 16th in rush defense DVOA (FTN Fantasy). This divisional matchup sets up for a possible low-scoring affair with limited fantasy-relevant production on both sides of the coin. Although at home, the Browns could get a slight production boost. The Steelers are overall 19th in graded coverage but have a solid coverage unit outside of corner Patrick Peterson, who has a middling coverage grade (PFF). Cooper should be able to have serviceable production. Njoku may have a more challenging matchup against the Steel Curtain linebackers Kwon Alexander and Elandon Roberts, who have above-average coverage grades (PFF). The Steelers are more susceptible to the run outside of edges Highsmith and TJ Watt have an above-average rush defense-grade, so the Steeler's D-Line should be manageable for Hunt and Ford. Finally, Watson will face some pressure but is behind an above-average O-Line ranked 12th in pass blocking, but the Steelers have a high (26) sacks for the year behind edge TJ Watt (Sportskeeda, PFF). 

Watson is a forefront QB2 against the Steelers, a possible streaming option, but mainly a solid 2 QB league play.  

Kareem Hunt/Jerome Ford

In recent games Hunt has finished as the RB 12, 14, 16, and 24 and Ford has finished as the RB 24, 10, 49, and 17. We will see how the distribution plays out in week ten to understand better how things may play out for this game and in the future. 

At home against a more susceptible Steelers rush defense, I would place Hunt and Ford as back-end RB2s this week. 

Amari Cooper/Elijah Moore/Cedric Tillman/David Njoku 

Cooper is the WR27 for the year and has had finishes of 21, 64, 26, and 4. He has managed to stay productive with a carousel of QBs. Moore is the WR62, and seemingly, we will get a good look at Tillman in week ten after Peoples-Jones was sent to the Lions. Njoku is the TE17 and has finished as a top-12 TE three times this year. 

Cooper is a WR2 this week, Moore and Tillman are off the radar in 12-man leagues, and Njoku is more of a TE 3/4 this week. 

Chicago at Detroit FOX

Justin Fields

Fields should be returning this week and has finished as a top-12 QB three out of six times this year; the rest he has busted from a fantasy perspective. 

The Bears will be on the road in a divisional matchup against the Lions, who will likely be heavy favorites at home. The Lions are ranked 8th in pass defense DVOA and 13th in rush defense DVOA, and the Bears are 30th in pass defense DVOA and 7th in rush defense DVOA, which could set up for a fantasy-relevant day for both squads (FTN Fantasy). The Lions are ranked 6th overall in graded coverage and have some vulnerabilities with corner Cameron Sutton, who is middling in graded coverage, and safety Kerby Joseph, who has a below-average coverage grade (PFF). Moore should not be limited in a game that Fields may have to throw in a negative game script if it plays out that way. Kmet's talent and opportunity should be able to outweigh safety Kerby Joseph and linebacker Jack Campbell, who are below average in graded coverage (PFF). The Lions are ranked 8th overall in graded rush defense, and the Bears running backs are running behind an O-line ranked 28th in run blocking; this game seemingly is a downgrade for this RB crew. The Lions are middling in (21) sacks, but the Bears have given up the 4th highest (30) sacks for the year (Sportskeeda). Expect Fields to get some pressure from edge Aiden Hutchinson on the road.

Fields is a back-end QB1 this week against the Lions. 

D'onte Foreman/Khalil Herbert/Roschon Johnson

Herbert should return in week ten, and we will first see how that shakes up before making any determinations this week. This may be a backfield to avoid, or Herbert could return to being a flex option. 

Without week ten in the books, I would rank Herbert and Foreman as either back-end flex plays or fringe flex options. I will adjust rankings based on how week ten plays out. Roschon would be off the radar in 12-man leagues. 

DJ Moore/Darnell Mooney/Tyler Scott/Cole Kmet

Moore is WR8 through nine weeks and has primarily been an RB2/flex play this year, but has a ceiling to reach WR1 status as he did in weeks four and five. Mooney is the WR61, and Scott is the WR129. Cole Kmet has held his own even with Fields out and is the TE5 for the year with five top-12 finishes. 

This week, the Bears may be in a negative game script and have to throw against the Lions. Moore is a WR2 with upside, and Kmet is a TE2.

Jared Goff

Goff is the QB14 through nine weeks and has finished as a top-12 QB three times. This week, he gets a plus matchup, but it's possible the Lions lean on the running game. 

The Lions will be at home and highly favored in a divisional matchup against the Bears. The Lions are ranked 8th in pass defense DVOA and 13th in rush defense DVOA, and the Bears are 30th in pass defense DVOA and 7th in rush defense DVOA, which could set up for a fantasy-relevant day for both squads (FTN Fantasy). However, the Lion's script may be more fantasy-productive for the running backs and defense. The Bears are overall ranked 25th in graded coverage, which may open up holes for the Lions' fantasy-relevant pass catchers. However, the Bears do have a solid corner in Jaylon Johnson, who has an above-average coverage grade (PFF). The Bears have been a pass funnel defense but are ranked 23rd in rush defense overall, which is a plus matchup for Gibbs and Montgomery at home. Goff should have time to breathe in the pocket as the Bears are the lowest in (10) sacks for the year (Sportskeeda). 

Goff is a back-end QB1 this week. 

David Montgomery/Jahmyr Gibbs

As of this writing, week ten is not yet in the books, but Montgomery will likely return then. Gibbs has filled in admirably but has had some soft matchups. 

Against a vulnerable Bears defense, this is a plus matchup for both Montgomery and Gibbs. Both are back-end RB1 to fore-front RB2s this week. 

Amon-Ra St. Brown/Josh Reynolds/Kalif Raymond/Sam LaPorta

St. Brown is the WR10 with finishes of 12, 28, 13, 13, 1, 6, and 19, with (74) targets and (11) red zone targets. Reynolds is the WR48, Raymond the WR68, and LaPorta is the TE4 for the year. 

Although this divisional matchup against the Bears is set up for the running backs to feast, Amon-Ra is still a WR1 and LaPorta a TE1; the rest of this crew is off the radar in 12-man leagues. 

Notables:

Not much change - I would expect Fields to be back this week, which would elevate Moore and Kmet.

LA Chargers at Green Bay FOX

Justin Herbert

Herbert is the QB10 through nine weeks with finishes of 6, 16, 2, 5, 8, 20, 7, and 25. He has mainly been a QB1 but has had some tough matchups, dealt and dealt with injury, and has had a slew of WRs go on the IR. 

The Chargers will be on the road this week and likely favored against the Packers in a mid to low Vegas total. The Packers are ranked 25th in pass defense DVOA and 19th in rush defense DVOA, and the Chargers are 21st in pass defense DVOA and 20th in rush defense DVOA (FTN Fantasy). This game sets up for fantasy production on both sides of the coin, and although Jordan Love and the Packers have waned, this is an opportunity for them to reemerge with a fantasy-relevant game at home. If the Chargers get ahead, they may lean on Ekeler and their defense. The Packers rank 7th overall in graded coverage but shipped off Rasul Douglas to the Bills and do have a vulnerable safety position in Jonathan Owens, who has a below-average coverage grade (PFF). The talent and opportunity of Keenan Allen can overmatch this coverage unit. The Packers primarily work out of zone coverage, but Allen excels in both man and zone (PFF). The tight end unit would have a challenging matchup against the Packer's linebackers, including De'Vondre Campbell, who has an above-average coverage grade (PFF). The Packers are overall ranked 9th in rush defense, and although the Chargers run-blocking offensive line is ranked towards the bottom in the league, the talent and opportunity of Ekeler should be able to be fantasy-relevant overall. The Packers have vulnerabilities on the D-line for rush defense outside of interior TJ Slaton, edge Preston Smith, and linebacker De'Vondre Campbell, who have above-average rush defense grades (PFF). Herbert will face some pressure on the road from the edges of Preston Smith and Rashan Gary but should be able to stay upright in the pocket. The Packers are 19th in (20) sacks for the year, and the Chargers are in the bottom third for sacks given up (Sportskeeda). 

Herbert is a back-end QB1 this week. 

Austin Ekeler

Ekeler has had finishes of 25, 38, 5, and 4 since his return from injury. 

In a plus matchup against a run-vulnerable Packers defense and limited distribution options on the Chargers, Ekeler is a surefire RB1 with upside. 

Keenan Allen/Quentin Johnston/Gerald Everett

Allen is the WR6 through nine weeks with finishes of 23, 1,2, 30, 5, 41, 26, and 12 with (80) targets and (13) redzone targets. Quentin Johnston is the WR111. Everett is the TE25 and Parham the TE26. 

In a plus matchup against the Packers with limited offensive weapons, Allen is a certified WR1 with upside. Someone else may emerge in this receiving core, or the ball may be distributed amongst the rest, similar to that of the Chiefs. The rest of this WR crew as of now is off the radar in 12-man leagues. In years past, Jaylen Guyton was a boom-or-bust option. 

Jordan Love

Love is the QB15 for the year, with finishes of 3, 15, 7, 14, 24, 14, 19, and 15. He is suitable for 2 QB leagues. 

The Packers are at home this week against the Chargers, who will likely be deemed favorites. The Packers are ranked 25th in pass defense DVOA and 19th in rush defense DVOA, and the Chargers are 21st in pass defense DVOA and 20th in rush defense DVOA (FTN Fantasy). This game sets up for fantasy production on both sides of the coin, and although Jordan Love and the Packers have waned, this is an opportunity for them to reemerge with a fantasy-relevant game at home. If the Chargers get ahead, they may lean on Ekeler and their defense. The Chargers are overall ranked 15th in graded coverage but have some vulnerabilities, including corner Micheal Davis and safety Derwin James, who have a below-average coverage grade (PFF). The Chargers are overall ranked 23rd in rush defense but have some strength up front on their O-line with edges Khalil Mack, Tuli Tuipulotu, and Joey Bosa, who have above-average rush defense grades. Jones should still be able to be fantasy-relevant at home. The Packers are in the bottom third in sacks (18) given up behind a 4th ranked pass blocking O-Line, but the Chargers are 4th in sacks (31), and I would expect Love to face some pressure from Mack and Bosa. 

Love is a QB 3/4 this week and suitable as usual for 2 QB leagues. 

Aaron Jones/AJ Dillon

Aaron Jones has had finishes of 26, 32, and 7 in his return from injury, and AJ Dillon went 21, 24, and 39 in the same range. Aaron Jones's snap shares have risen to 56.5% as of week nine, and Dillon's has fallen to 43.5% (Player Profiler). Jones outcarried Dillon 20 to 9 in week nine. 

In a plus matchup against a vulnerable Chargers rush defense and with the Packers being at home, Aaron Jones is a back-end RB1 play. Dillon is a fringe flex play.

Romeo Doubs/Christian Watson/Jayden Reed/Luke Musgrave 

Doubs is the WR42 for the year with finishes of 33, 38, and 50 in recent games, weeks 7-9, Watson had a concussion injury in week nine and has finishes of 56, 69, and 65 in the same range and Reed is the WR51 with finishes of 32, 36 and 48 in the same range. Musgrave is the TE21 and has had two top-12 finishes. 

Target distribution has been somewhat even for this group, so it's hard to project a standout option. In a plus matchup, Doubs and Watson are temper your expecation flex plays, and Reed and Mugrave are off the radar in 12-man leagues. 

Arizona at Houston CBS (FAST BREAK) 

Kyler Murray

As of this writing, week ten is not yet in the books, but Murray should be returning then, and we will see how he looks after having been out with a torn ACL and getting back to game speed. 

This week, the Cards are on the road against the Texans, who will likely be favored. The Texans are ranked 26th in pass defense DVOA and 14th in rush defense DVOA, and the Cards are 31st in pass defense DVOA and 30th in rush defense DVOA (FTN Fantasy). The game should have a middling to high Vegas total, and if it follows script, it could be fantasy-productive for both teams who have susceptible defenses. This is a plus matchup for all fantasy-relevant players. Both teams are in the top 3rd in the league in pace (FTN Fantasy). The Texans rank towards the bottom of the league in (17) sacks; Murray should have some time in the pocket but still could be getting back into game rhythm (Sportskeeda). 

James Connor/Emari Demercado

As of this writing, week ten is not yet in the books, but James Connor is trending to return during week ten, but it's possible he will be on a snap count in his first game back. 

I will rank Connor accordingly, but I would suspect his usage gets ramped up, and he will be an RB2 this week against the Texans. Unless week ten proves otherwise, Emari would be off the radar in 12-man leagues. 

Marquise Brown/Michael Wilson/Rondale Moore/Trey McBride

Brown has held his own this year as the WR22, and I imagine he will get a boost if all is well with Kyler Murray returning from his ACL injury. Wilson is the WR50, but he may also get a boost in production. Moore is the WR66, and McBride has had two top-12 finishes from weeks 6-9. 

Brown is a WR1 with upside this week against a vulnerable Texans pass defense. Wilson and Rondale, for now, are off the radar in 12-man leagues, although they could see fantasy-relevant production, and McBride is a TE2. 

CJ Stroud

Stroud is the QB9 through nine weeks with finishes of 21, 7, 11, 10, 17, 12, 25, and 1. He has primarily been a QB1 option for 12-man leagues and gets a plus matchup this week. 

The Texans will be at home against the Cards in a game they will likely be favored in. The Texans are ranked 26th in pass defense DVOA and 14th in rush defense DVOA, and the Cards are 31st in pass defense DVOA and 30th in rush defense DVOA (FTN Fantasy). The game should have a middling to high Vegas total, and if it follows script, it could be fantasy-productive for both teams who have susceptible defenses. This is a plus matchup for all fantasy-relevant players. Both teams are in the top 3rd in the league in pace (FTN Fantasy). The Cardinals are ranked 28th in overall graded pass rush, which should leave Stroud with some time in the pocket (PFF).  

Dameon Pierce/Devin Singletary

Pierce is the RB45 for the year, and Singletary the RB56. 

This game is a plus matchup against the Cardinals, who have a susceptible run defense, but both players have been flex or bust plays, so you may want to temper expectations. Pierce and Singletary are mid-flex plays this week. 

Nico Collins/Tank Dell/Noah Brown/Robert Woods/Dalton Schultz

Collins is the WR15 for the year with finishes of 24, 5, 76, 3, 53, 31, 67, and 14. Dell is the WR33 with three top-36 finishes. Woods is the WR70 and Brown had a stellar game in week nine finishing as the WR3. Schultz is the TE8 for the year and has finished as the TE 6, 6, 2, 35, and 1 from weeks 4-9, including a bye. 

This week is a plus matchup against the Cardinal's vulnerable pass defense. Collins is a WR2 with upside, Dell, depending on how he performs in week nine, is a flex option, and Woods is a back-end dart throw flex play. Schultz is a surefire TE2. I do not want to get overzealous on Dell, especially when Woods enters back into the fold.

Notables:

Murray looked spry in his return, so I trust him moving forward.
Nico was out in week ten, but I would imagine him back.

Tennessee at Jacksonville CBS  

Will Levis

Levis finished as the QB6 and the QB22 against a stout Steelers defense in week nine. 

This week, the Titans will be on the road in a divisional matchup against the Jags, who will likely be heavy favorites in a game that will sport a low Vegas total. The Jags are 5th in pass defense DVOA and 4th in rush defense DVOA, and the Titans are 24th in pass defense DVOA and 8th in rush defense DVOA (FTN Fantasy). If the game follows script, it could be a boost for the Jags fantasy relevant players and put the Titans in a hole they may have to try to throw their way out of. The Jags are overall ranked 3rd in graded coverage; they have all above-average coverage grade units outside of safety Rayshawn Jenkins, who has an average coverage grade (PFF). Hopkins has the talent to overcome, but he still may be fantasy-capped in this game. The Jags are also solid in rush defense but have holes on the D-line with edge Travon Walker and interior Dawuane Smooth, who have middling to low rush defense grades (PFF). Henry's production may be less than stellar in this road game, but it's hard to bet against him. The Jags are in the bottom third in sacks, but the Titans are 6th in (29) sacks given up for the year (Sportskeeda). Levis should have room to breathe in the pocket but will face pressure from stellar edge Josh Allen. 

Levis is, at best, a 2 QB league option this week, but not streamable for 12-man leagues from a fantasy perspective. 

Derrick Henry/Tyjae Spears

Henry is the RB8 through nine weeks with finishes of 14, 12, 67, 9, 28, 6, 13, and 6. Spears is the RB39 and has had five top-36 finishes this year. 

He does face a challenging matchup on the road, but it's hard to go against consistency. Henry is an RB2 this week. Spears is a fringe flex play, and it may not be a week he makes it inside the top 36. 

DeAndre Hopkins/Nick Westbrook-Ikhine/Treylon Burks/Chigoziem Okonkwo

Hopkins has finished as the WR2 and WR27 in both his games with Levis. His body language on the field shows a renewed interest in the game. Westbrook-Ikhine is the WR59, and Burks is the WR115. Chigo is the TE28 and has not hit the top 12 this year. 

The Titans WR unit may struggle here against a stout Jags defense. Hopkins is a WR2, and the rest of this crew are off the radar in 12-man leagues. 

Trevor Lawrence

Lawrence is the QB16 through nine weeks and has finished in the top-12 50% of the time. 

This week, the Jags are at home and likely favorites in a divisional matchup against the Titans. The Jags are 5th in pass defense DVOA and 4th in rush defense DVOA, and the Titans are 24th in pass defense DVOA and 8th in rush defense DVOA (FTN Fantasy). If the game follows script, it could be a boost for the Jags fantasy relevant players and put the Titans in a hole they may have to try to throw their way out of. The Titans are overall ranked 23rd in graded coverage and are vulnerable against the pass outside of corner Sean Murphy-Bunting, who has an above-average coverage grade (PFF). This should be a boost to Kirk, Ridley, and Engram. Engram should have the talent and opportunity to outmatch the Titans linebackers, who are middling in coverage, as well as the safeties (PFF). The Titans are a pass funnel defense but are ranked 26th overall in graded rush defense, which should serve as a plus matchup at home for Etienne, whose team will be heavy favorites. Lawrence should have time in the pocket and not be overly pressured by the Titans' D-Line. 

Lawrence is a back-end QB1 this week.

Travis Etienne

Etienne is the RB3 for the year with finishes of 6, 39, 8, 22, 1, 2, 5, and 6 with (31) targets. 

In a plus matchup against the Titans at home as heavy favorites, Travis is an RB1 this week. 

Christian Kirk/Calvin Ridley/Zay Jones/Evan Engram

Kirk is the WR20 for the year and has primarily been a WR2. Ridley is the WR40 and has busted 50% of the time (outside the top 36), but his targets match Kirk and Engram's. Zay has missed a chunk of games and has finished inside the top 36 twice, and Engram is the TE6 for the year. 

The Jags could be working in a positive game script against the Titans, which may lower the ceilings of the pass catchers. Kirk is a WR2, Ridley a flex play, Jones a fringe flex, and Engram a TE2. 

Las Vegas at Miami CBS

Aidan O'Connell

Aidan has finished as the QB 25 and 24 in his starts thus far this year in weeks seven and nine. 

This week, the Raiders will likely be traveling to Miami as heavy underdogs against a premier offense. The Dolphins are ranked 17th in pass defense DVOA and 24th in rush defense DVOA, while the Raiders are 15th in pass defense DVOA and 29th in rush defense DVOA (FTN Fantasy). This game script is set up for the Dolphins to be in the lead with increased fantasy production for all fantasy-relevant players while placing the Raiders in a negative game script, likely forcing them to throw the ball to keep pace. The Dolphins are ranked 12th overall in graded coverage and should have Jalen Ramsey in for this game after their bye, which could limit Adams and crew and force Connell to make errors (PFF). Although the Dolphins are 29th in rush defense DVOA, they have a solid D-Line ranked above average in graded rush defense outside of interior Zach Sieler and linebacker Jerome Baker, who are middling in graded rush defense (PFF). Their overall rank is 5th in graded rush defense, which could thwart some of Jacobs's production this week. The Dolphins are one of the league leaders in sacks (29) and may give O'Connell some pressure behind Bradley Chubb even if the Raiders O-line is above par in pass-blocking, especially since they are coming off a bye and playing at home (PFF, Sportskeeda). 

O'Connell is off the radar in 12-man leagues. He is a possible start in 2 QB leagues, but I am staying away this week. 

Josh Jacobs

Jacobs is the RB4 for the year with finishes of 33, 25, 20, 3, 6, 22, 41, 11, and 3 with (40) targets. 

Jacobs gets a challenging matchup on the road against the Dolphins coming off a bye. Jacobs is a fore-front RB2 this week. 

Davante Adams/Jakobi Meyers/Hunter Renfrow/Michael Mayer

Adams is the WR14 for the year but has finishes of 45, 70, 24, 102, and 47 in recent games through week nine. Meyers is the WR16 and has finishes of 10, 14, 12, 94, and 19 in that same range. Renfrow is the WR113, and Mayer has had one top-12 finish. 

The Raiders will likely have to throw on the road against the Dolphins, but with the return of Ramsey, I would temper expectations. Adams and Meyers are WR2s this week. Renfrow and Mayer are off the radar in 12-man leagues. 

Tua Tagovailoa

Tua is the QB5 for the year with finishes of 1, 27, 3, 18, 14, 3, 22, 8, and 14. This week, he gets a plus matchup at home. 

The Dolphins will be playing at home this week as heavy favorites coming off a bye against the Raiders. The Dolphins are ranked 17th in pass defense DVOA and 24th in rush defense DVOA, while the Raiders are 15th in pass defense DVOA and 29th in rush defense DVOA (FTN Fantasy). This game script is set up for the Dolphins to be in the lead with increased fantasy production for all fantasy-relevant players while placing the Raiders in a negative game script, likely forcing them to throw the ball to keep pace. The Raiders are ranked 13th in graded coverage and have solid coverage in corners Marcus Peters and slot corner Nate Hobbs, with above-average coverage grades (PFF). Still, this group can be overmatched by the talents of Tyreek Hill and Waddle and are more vulnerable at the safety position, which the speedy Hill could get past. The Raiders are middling in rush defense, but with the Dolphins heavy favorites at home, it bodes as a plus matchup for Mostert and Achane, who could be limited coming back from injury. Tua may face some pressure from edge Maxx Crosby, but overall, the Dolphins O-line is 9th in pass-blocking and should give him enough time to move in the pocket at home (PFF). 

Tua is a QB1 to fore-front QB2 this week. 

Raheem Mostert/De'Von Achane 

Mostert is the RB2 for the year, but Achane will likely make his return this week, although his snap shares may be lower in his first game back. 

With the Dolphins being heavy home favorites against the Raiders, I would place Mostert as an RB1 and Achane as a flex option in his first game back. 

Tyreek Hill/Jaylen Waddle/Braxton Berrios/Durham Smythe

Hill is the WR1 for the year and has finished in the top 12 seven out of nine times. Waddle is the WR23 and clocks in as primarily a WR2/flex play. Berrios is the WR75, and Smythe is the WR34. 

In a plus matchup at home, Hill is a surefire WR1, and Waddle is a WR2 this week against the Raiders. Berrios, Claypool, and Smythe are off the radar in 12-man leagues. 

Notables:

Worried about the value of Adams with O' Connell.

NY Giants at Washington FOX 

Tommy Devito 

Devito finished as the QB31 and 20 in weeks eight and nine.

This week, the Giants will be on the road against the Commanders, who will likely be heavy favorites. The Commanders are 29th in pass defense DVOA and 11th in rush defense DVOA, and the Giants are 20th in pass defense DVOA and 28th in rush defense DVOA (FTN Fantasy). This game script is likely set up for the Commanders to have increased production from their fantasy-relevant players. For the Giants, you are likely sticking to only Barkley as a startable fantasy player as of now. The Commanders are overall 16th in graded coverage, which would bode well for the pass-catching crew, although there isn't anyone on this squad reliable enough to start in fantasy (PFF). The Commanders are overall 12th in graded rush defense, but Barkley is a reliable start, even if his ceiling is capped. Devito shouldn't overly face pressure as the Commanders traded away their stud edges, but the Giants still are 1st in sacks (49) given up for the year (Sportskeeda). 

Devito is a 2 QB league option, but not startable in 12-man leagues. 

Saquon Barkley

Barkley is the RB22 for the year with finishes of 31, 2, 16, 8, 12, and 14. 

Barkley tends to be a safe, matchup-proof fantasy starter who likely finishes as at least an RB2 with a capped ceiling. 

Wan'Dale Robinson/Darius Slayton/Jalin Hyatt/Daniel Bellinger 

Robinson is the WR63 for the year but did finish as the WR19 in week nine, Slayton is the WR64 and finished as the WR31 in week nine, Hyatt is the WR99, and Bellinger finished as the TE22 in week nine. 

Unless week ten shows to be another fruitful outing for any of these pass catchers, you are likely keeping them off the radar in 12-man leagues. 

Sam Howell

Howell is the QB6 for the year and has finished inside the top-12 67% of the time. 

This week, the Commanders will be heavy favorites at home against the Giants. The Commanders are 29th in pass defense DVOA and 11th in rush defense DVOA, and the Giants are 20th in pass defense DVOA and 28th in rush defense DVOA (FTN Fantasy). This game script is likely set up for the Commanders to have increased production from their fantasy-relevant players. The Giants are ranked 26th in graded coverage, which is a plus matchup for the Commanders pass catchers who can overmatch this coverage unit (PFF). Logan Thomas has a more challenging matchup against the G-men linebackers Bobby Okereke and Isaiah Simmons, who have above-average coverage grades (PFF). The Giants are ranked 23rd in graded rush defense, and with the game being at home and the Commanders being heavy favorites, it sets up as a plus matchup for Robinson and Gibson (PFF). The G-men D-line is susceptible to the run outside Bobby Okereke and interior Dexter Lawrence. The Commanders have given up the 2nd highest amount of sacks (44) for the year, but the Giants are ranked 31st in sacks. I would imagine Howell has time to deliver in this matchup. 

Howell is a QB1 this week with upside. 

Brian Robinson/Antonio Gibson

Robinson is the RB13 through nine weeks with finishes of 16, 4, 34, 15, 30, 17, 27, 25, and 16. Gibson is the RB34 and has hit the top-36 56% of the time this year. 

In a plus matchup at home against the G-men and has heavy favorites, Robinson is an RB2 with upside, and Gibson is a back-end flex play. 

Terry McLaurin/Curtis Samuel/Jahan Dotson/Logan Thomas

McLaurin is the WR19 through nine weeks with finishes of 69, 25, 47, 13, 42, 25, 20, 18, and 23 with (69) targets and (14) redzone targets. Samuel is the WR43 and has finished inside the top 36 38% of the time. Dotson is the WR44 and has finished inside the top 36 three times out of nine. Logan Thomas is the TE13 and has five top-12 finishes. 

This week against the Giants is a plus matchup for this crew, although, with a talented supporting cast, it would be hard for everyone to get equal screen time. McLaurin is a likely WR2, Samuel and Dotson are back-end flex plays, and Thomas is a TE2, but I would temper expectations with a more challenging matchup. 

Denver at Buffalo - ESPN/ABC (FAST BREAK)

Russell Wilson

Wilson is the QB10 through eight weeks and has finished in the top-12 50% of the time. 

Rumbling Russel Wilson will be roaring on the road this week against the robust Buffalo Bills. The Bills will likely be heavy favorites at home, which may put the Broncos in a negative game script and forced to air it out to keep pace. The Bills are ranked 13th in pass defense DVOA and 17th in rush defense DVOA, but they did add Rasul Douglas from the Packers to bolster their unit. Overall, the Bills are ranked 7th in graded coverage, which could pose problems for the Broncos pass-catching squad. The Bill are more vulnerable in rushing as they are ranked 23rd in overall graded rush defense. Russell may have a hard time in the pocket as the Bills are ranked 2nd in sacks (28), and the Broncos are 6th in sacks (26) given up. The team may elevate on Monday night, but this is a tough matchup for the Broncos on the road. 

Wilson may be more of a QB 3/4 this week. 

Javonte Williams

Williams is the RB30 for the year and has been on an uptrend in the past few weeks, finishes as the RB 20 and 9 in weeks seven and eight. 

This week, the Broncos will be on the road in a tough matchup, so I would temper expectations with Williams and likely place him as an RB2. 

Courtland Sutton/Jerry Jeudy/Marvin Mims/Adam Trautman

Sutton is the WR21 for the year and has finished in the top-36 63% of the time. Jeudy is the WR54 and has finished inside the top-36 57% of the time. Mims is the WR74 and Trautman is the TE42.

This week, the Broncos face a tough matchup with the Bills at home, and although they may need to pass, the Bills have a stellar coverage unit. Sutton and Jeudy are flex plays, and Mims and Trautman are off the radar in 12-man leagues. They may perform better than expected on the Monday night stage. 

Josh Allen 

Allen is the QB1 through eight weeks with finishes of 19, 6, 8, 1, 2, 13, 5, and 2. He is 5th in passing yards, 3rd in deep ball attempts, and 3rd in passing TDs (Player Profiler). 

This week, the Bills will be home as heavy favorites against the Broncos. The orange battalion is ranked 32nd in pass defense DVOA and 30th in rush defense DVOA. This is a plus matchup all around for the Bills. 

Allen is a certified QB1 this week with upside. 

James Cook/Latavius Murray

Cook is the RB17 through eight weeks and has finished as a top-24 RB 50% of the time. Murray is the RB50.

With a plus matchup against a Broncos team Monday night and as heavy favorites at home, Cook is an RB1 this week with upside. Murray is a fringe flex play. 

Stefon Diggs/Gabe Davis/Khalil Shakir/Dalton Kincaid 

Diggs is the WR3 for the year and has finished as the WR2 or above 88% of the time. Davis is the WR24 for the year and is boom or bust and has finished in the top-36 four times out of eight but has busted the rest of the time. Shakir finished as the WR24 in week eight, and Kincaid, with Knox out, is a certified TE2. 

Against the Broncos on Monday night and as heavy favorites, this is a plus matchup for this crew. The game may lean more towards the defensive side, which elevates Cook. Diggs is a WR1 with upside, Davis is a boom-or-bust flex play, Shakir is a fringe flex play, and Kincaid is a TE2.